Sindbad the trade

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Global Market Cue

1. In regular US trading hours on Monday, the Dow erased a 450 point gain to end flat, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.74% and 2.04%. During Asian markets hours Dow future are showing green shoot.
2. Up coming fed reserve policy meeting and continued Ukraine Russia issue is over hang for market.
3. Shenzhen lockdown, fear of Global supply chain disruption.

Commodity Market Cue

1. Crude oil prices are below $100 on effort of diplomatic negotiation to reduce impact of supply chain disruption due to Russia Ukraine War. Other commodity prices have also started easing.

Commodity	Price	Day	% change	Weekly	Monthly	YOY
Crude Oil	98.27	-4.16	-3.93%	-19.98%	7.8%	52.80%
Natural Gas	4.6200	-0.038	-0.82%	2.03%	1.03%	80.29%
Gold	1943.34	-7.32	-0.38%	-5.28%	4.05%	12.31%
Silver	24.910	-0.132	-0.38%	-5.53%	5.89%	-3.98%

Uncertainties & VIX

1. Federal Reserve Policy meeting out come.
2. Russia and Ukraine war, disruption of supply chain. War spreading?
3. Increasing case of Covid in China. Latest Shenzhen lockdown

VIX	Day	Change%
India VIX	25.67	1.31%
US VIX	31.06	1.02

India Benchmark Indices review

Nifty50:

1. Nifty has crossed upward the 200 days MA and is trading at 16885.40. Yesterday we saw 237 points up move and as a result of short covering and long build up.
2. Daily RSI has crossed 50 RSI. Week RSI is at 49 bouncing off from 40. Monthly RSI continues to be above 60
3. Support: 16395 is the immediate support and failing which 15400 range will be good support
4. Resistance: 17300 could be immediate upside resistance

“I would add that I consider myself and how I do things as a kind of system which, by definition, I always follow.”

Ed Seykota: Greatest Quotes from trendfollowing.com

Bank Nifty:

1. Bank Nifty moved 723 points and is trading at 35319.30. Short covering rally is seen in Bank nifty, long build up is not yet visible.
2. Daily RSI has crossed 45 RSI. Week RSI is at 44, bouncing off from 40.
3. Monthly RSI has breached 50 and is at 54.
4. Support: 34060 is the immediate support and failing which 32200 range will be good support.
5. Resistance: Currently in resistance zone, would be interesting to see if the short covering will lead to long build up. Near term test will be 200 MA 36200, will it take out?

Summary

I am cautiously optimistic, have bee holding some metal stocks which have give decent return, it might be time to look beyond metal. IT space looks interesting. As for indices, I will be looking for buy opportunity on long side, some momentum building up need to see if any other heading wind. Looks for fed reserve policy commentary.

Good day and good trading, Sindbad off!

Research sites:

tradingview, investing.com. moneycontrol.com, tradingeconomics.com